AUDIENCE PASSPORT · audiencepassport.com · Nº AP-26-0002

thebackcut.com

The Backcut · weekly newsletter for tree service operators (beehiiv, 2,559 active subscribers)

TIER-2MEASURED
ID-GRAPH
2026-09-26
B2B newsletter
2026-07-05 → 2026-09-26 · day 83
2026-09-26
Passport v0.4 draft
01 · Audience scale
6,228devices observed on-site
7,188measured pageviews
464distinct people identified
1,136hashed emails (custom-audience ready)

Collection began 2026-07-05. Seventh issue: 6,228 devices and 464 identified people, up from 4,283 and 336 at day forty-six, 3,061 and 245 at day thirty-two. The upstream ingest pause disclosed at the prior issue has backfilled, so the beacon window and the humanness read both run through the issue date. On 2026-07-18, tag delivery moved from direct GTM tags to the audiencepassport loader; the change is disclosed in the claims ledger. Figures accumulate as the instrument runs; nothing is projected.

02 · Identity resolution
22.0%of devices resolve to a real, named person via independent id-graph match
1,371resolved devices
4,857observed, unresolved (kept in denominator)
devices observed6,228
devices resolved1,371
distinct people464
hashed emails1,136

Resolution is deterministic cookie-to-identity matching against a 274M-person US identity graph. The unresolved remainder is reported, not discarded: the rate itself is part of the measurement.

03 · Humanness (tier 1)
69%of measured pageviews assess as human traffic
6,197pageviews in read window (2026-07-05 → 2026-09-26)
Human 69%Declared crawlers 8%Suspect automated 17%Not enough data 7%

On-page fingerprinting by FouAnalytics; dashboard read 2026-09-26. Automated read from the dashboard chart.json endpoint (labels no/noish=human 4283, yes/yesish=suspect 1034, declared+search=474, not-enough-data=406; mapping validated vs 2026-07-13 manual dashboard read). Prior manual read 2026-07-13: 74.4% human on 924 pv. Declared crawlers are reported as a distinct signal, not dismissed as fraud: in the agentic era, AI agents visiting a property are a leading indicator of machine-mediated discovery, and this instrument counts them separately from suspect automation.

04 · Professional composition
low fill · disclosed144 of 464 identified site visitors carry employment-graph job data, and what fills is scattered day-job records, not the tree businesses themselves. This audience resolves as owner-operators and consumers: people whose businesses exist in county registries, not LinkedIn. The first-party list match below is where the professional shape becomes measurable; business-registry verification remains the designated tier-3 lane and appends to the ledger when it ships.
05 · Demographicsfill: 389 of 464 people

Age

35-4423%
45-5421%
55-6421%
65 and older20%
25-3412%
18-244%

Gender

F54%
M45%

Small-cell floor n<5: 1 cell (3 people) suppressed, included in fill counts, never rendered.

Age spreads nearly flat across four adjacent bands on-site — 35-44 (88 people), 45-54 (82), 55-64 (80), 65-and-older (76) — the balance first seen at day forty-six holds. Gender splits 239 F / 199 M on-site while the subscriber list runs 76% male; site traffic includes non-subscriber visitors and household devices, so the two read differently and both are reported.

06 · Household & wealthfill: 308 of 464 people

Household income

4%$250K and up
3%$200K to $250K
4%$150K to $200K
13%$100K to $150K
13%$75K to $100K
14%$60K to $75K
14%$45K to $60K
25%$20K to $45K
11%under $20K

Net worth

over $1M2%
$750K to $1M13%
$500K to $750K4%
$375K to $500K11%
$250K to $375K2%
$150K to $250K15%
$100K to $150K7%
$75K to $100K7%
$50K to $75K2%
$25K to $50K5%
$2.5K to $25K11%
around zero18%
negative3%

Bands descend from highest at the top on both wings; each wing is percented on its own known base and scaled to its own longest bar. The shapes are the point: where the income mass sits against where the net-worth mass sits.

92%homeowners, of 317 people with housing data
46%married, of 311 people with marital data

Income reads modest (modal band $20,000–$44,999, 78 people) while net worth shows both ends: near-zero is again the largest band (59 people), $150K–$250K second (48), $750K–$1M third (43). The owner-operator signature — small W-2 salaries, wealth held in homes and businesses — persists at day eighty-three. 92% homeownership (292 of 317 with housing data) corroborates.

07 · Geographyfill: 433 of 464 people
AK · below small-cell floor (n<5)AL · 9 people · 2.1% of known-state baseAR · 6 people · 1.4% of known-state baseAZ · 6 people · 1.4% of known-state baseCA · 34 people · 7.9% of known-state baseCO · 16 people · 3.7% of known-state baseCT · 6 people · 1.4% of known-state baseDC · no identified people in windowDE · below small-cell floor (n<5)FL · 23 people · 5.3% of known-state baseGA · 18 people · 4.2% of known-state baseHI · below small-cell floor (n<5)IA · below small-cell floor (n<5)ID · below small-cell floor (n<5)IL · 19 people · 4.4% of known-state baseIN · 8 people · 1.8% of known-state baseKS · below small-cell floor (n<5)KY · below small-cell floor (n<5)LA · 8 people · 1.8% of known-state baseMA · 16 people · 3.7% of known-state baseMD · below small-cell floor (n<5)ME · below small-cell floor (n<5)MI · 21 people · 4.8% of known-state baseMN · 5 people · 1.2% of known-state baseMO · 9 people · 2.1% of known-state baseMS · 5 people · 1.2% of known-state baseMT · below small-cell floor (n<5)NC · 13 people · 3.0% of known-state baseND · below small-cell floor (n<5)NE · below small-cell floor (n<5)NH · 6 people · 1.4% of known-state baseNJ · 8 people · 1.8% of known-state baseNM · below small-cell floor (n<5)NV · below small-cell floor (n<5)NY · 27 people · 6.2% of known-state baseOH · 13 people · 3.0% of known-state baseOK · 11 people · 2.5% of known-state baseOR · 7 people · 1.6% of known-state basePA · 19 people · 4.4% of known-state baseRI · below small-cell floor (n<5)SC · 6 people · 1.4% of known-state baseSD · below small-cell floor (n<5)TN · 11 people · 2.5% of known-state baseTX · 20 people · 4.6% of known-state baseUT · 5 people · 1.2% of known-state baseVA · 13 people · 3.0% of known-state baseVT · below small-cell floor (n<5)WA · 14 people · 3.2% of known-state baseWI · 13 people · 3.0% of known-state baseWV · below small-cell floor (n<5)WY · below small-cell floor (n<5)AL2%AR1%AZ1%CA8%CO4%FL5%GA4%IL4%IN2%LA2%MI5%MN1%MO2%MS1%NC3%NY6%OH3%OK3%OR2%PA4%SC1%TN3%TX5%UT1%VA3%WA3%WI3%
share of known-state basebelow floor n<5none identified

Leading states: CA 8%, NY 6%, FL 5%, MI 5%, TX 5%. Tint carries each state’s share of the known-state base; hover any state for its exact count and share. Hatched states hold 38 people across 19 cells, counted in fills, never rendered individually.

08 · Acquisition sources
79%of all devices arrive from Meta ads (4,932 of 6,228); 23% of them resolve
3%newsletter-click devices (200; opens don't touch the site, only clicks are measurable)
18%untagged: organic / direct / other (1,095 devices)

Source attribution reads UTMs captured in the beacon itself, not platform-reported analytics. Shares can overlap slightly where a device arrives from more than one source. From this issue, shares are of all devices in the window, counted directly; the prior issue's 86% was a share of UTM-tagged devices only, so the two figures are not directly comparable.

09 · List composition (first-party list match)
2,525signups matched, through 2026-09-16 (2,559 active on platform at issue)
663resolve to verified people — 26.3% of the matched list
Ownerthe single most common job title among the resolved
90%homeowners, of 453 matched people with housing data
One dot per signup, all 2,525 of them. Each filled dot is one of the 663 identity-verified people; the rest are reported as unresolved, never projected.

One dot per signup, all 2,525 of them. Each filled dot is one of the 663 identity-verified people; the rest are reported as unresolved, never projected.

Of 272 matched subscribers with seniority data, 109 are C-level; top titles read Owner (49), President (17), Arborist (10), Business Owner, Vice President. 125 of 218 with company-size data run 1-to-25-person firms; Environmental Services is the top industry. 76% male, modal ages 35–64; Texas, Michigan, California, and Pennsylvania lead. The matched file is the 2,096 actives of 2026-08-05 plus 429 later signups; unsubscribes since 2026-08-05 are not netted out. The list is matched as SHA-256 hashed emails against the identity graph and reported as aggregate statistics only: no person-level enrichment is returned to anyone, including the publisher. Composition is read from the resolved 26%; the remainder is reported, never projected.

10 · Declared vs. verified
Declared / claimedMeasuredVerdict
Weekly newsletter for tree service operators (declared subject)Owner is the top job title; 109 of 272 C-level; 57% at 1–25 employees; Environmental Services top industry (list match, 663 people)CONFIRMED
~800 subscribers (declared at first issue, 2026-07-06)2,559 active on platform; 663 identity-verified people (26.3% of 2,525 matched signups)REVISED
Audience built with Meta ads (declared acquisition)79% of all devices arrive from Meta placements; 23% of them resolve to peopleCONFIRMED
Raw traffic counts imply human readers (the industry default claim)69.1% of pageviews assess human; 7.6% declared crawlers; 16.7% suspect automation, reported unblendedREVISED

What the property says about itself, against what the instruments read. A revised claim is not a failure of the property; it is the difference between a description and a measurement, on the record.

11 · Issue-over-issue trend
IssueDevicesPeopleResolutionHuman shareSuspect share
first issue · day 2 (2026-07-06)17218—79% (160 pv)11%
re-issue · day 9 (2026-07-13)9437623.3%74.4% (924 pv)18.4%
re-issue · day 12 (2026-07-16)1,1189624.0%74.8% (1,048 pv)17.7%
re-issue · day 16 (2026-07-20)1,53612622.8%75.8% (1,416 pv)16.0%
re-issue · day 32, full month (2026-08-05)3,06124522.0%74.3% (2,955 pv)14.7%
re-issue · day 46 (2026-08-24)4,28333622.1%72.6% (4,494 pv)15.3%
re-issue · day 83 (2026-09-26)6,22846422.0%69.1% (6,197 pv)16.7%

Same instruments, same property, successive issues of this document. Movement in the suspect share is reported, not smoothed: a rising bot share with scale is what honest measurement of paid traffic looks like.

12 · Persona models (modeled layer)

~ modeledThese are not measured people. They are synthetic buyer archetypes, modeled from the property's declared audience definition, weights re-fit to day-12 measured composition (n=96 site people: modal age 65+, 52% female, 94% homeowners, barbell net worth; plus the first-party list match). One deliberate mismatch archetype is included to quantify targeting waste, not to be sold to, for use in creative and offer planning. Weights are estimates of segment share, never quotable as measurement.

~22%Doug
Two-truck grinding veteran · upstate NY · 52

Wants: Book more removals and stump jobs without paying a marketing company that doesn't get his business.

Held back by: Burned by a $500/mo SEO vendor; assumes marketing pitches are scams until proven otherwise.

Stance: Solution-aware; answers every call himself from the cab of his F-350.

~15%Marcus
Growth-hungry two-crew owner · DFW · 34

Wants: Systematized lead flow so he can step off the saw and run the business.

Held back by: Two payrolls to cover; anything new must show ROI in weeks.

Stance: Product-aware; runs his own LSAs, wants tree-specific proof, not hype.

~18%Linda
Office-and-field partner · central NC · 48

Wants: Practical, low-cost tactics she can run herself to restart flat revenue.

Held back by: Distrusts subscriptions she can't pause in winter; a Groupon deal once brought the wrong customers.

Stance: Problem-aware; she reads the newsletter and decides what her husband sees.

~18%Ray
Semi-retired legacy operator · southern Maine · 68

Wants: Reads to validate that his way of doing business still works; would take a few more high-margin removals.

Held back by: Never spent a dollar on advertising; new tech reads as designed to exploit tradespeople.

Stance: Unaware; has never clicked a CTA in an email.

~8%Jake
Scaling 12-person operator · Milwaukee · 41

Wants: Grow $400K to $750K in two years; professionalize the pipeline for municipal bids.

Held back by: Time. Anything adopted must save hours, not cost them.

Stance: Most-aware power reader; CRM, agency ads, 120+ reviews already in place.

~12%Carlos
Hustle-phase new owner · Baton Rouge · 29

Wants: Legitimize the business past side-job status and hire a first employee.

Held back by: Cash is truck-payment tight; spend must pay back within weeks.

Stance: Problem-aware; skims on his phone between jobs, suspicious of anything that costs money.

~7%Pat
MISMATCH · retired homeowner, no tree business · Sarasota FL · 66

Wants: Subscribed out of property-owner curiosity (a removal quote scared her); reads for the stories.

Held back by: Has no business; every operator-facing offer is irrelevant by definition.

Stance: Function: quantifies the waste segment. Roughly this share of the measured audience carries no employment signal and consumer-only attributes; a sponsor buying operators should know this slice exists.

Heaviest-archetype rule: Doug (22%) is also the most pitch-averse; for this panel the win condition on the heaviest segment is not losing it. This matched the live creative test, where funnel suspicion was the universal blocker.

This panel is executable. The publisher can offer sponsors a pre-flight test of their creative or offer against these archetypes as part of the sponsorship package, producing per-archetype receptivity scores before budget is committed. The passport certifies what the panel was modeled from; the test is its own report. Sample pre-flight test against this panel →

13 · Field confidence
FieldKnown-value baseFillConfidence
Gender441 of 46495%high confidence
State / geography433 of 46493%high confidence
Age band389 of 46484%high confidence
Homeownership317 of 46468%directional
Net worth320 of 46469%directional
Marital status311 of 46467%directional
Household income308 of 46466%directional
Children in household240 of 46452%directional
Job title152 of 46433%sparse
Seniority144 of 46431%sparse
Company size122 of 46426%sparse
Industry77 of 46417%sparse

Every percentage in this passport is computed on its field’s known-value base (nulls excluded), never imputed. high confidence ≥70% fill, quotable; directional 40–70%; sparse <40%, indicative only. Small-cell floor: distribution cells under n=5 are suppressed from render (the floor rises as fills grow).

14 · Claims ledger
ClaimSourceMethodBasis
✓ verified6,228 US devices observed; 7,188 pageviews measured (day 83)on-page beaconfirst-party pageview beaconfull window
✓ verifiedThe upstream ingest pause disclosed at the prior issue (identity-graph rows stopped at 2026-08-20) has backfilled: daily rows run unbroken from 2026-08-20 to the issue date, and this issue re-reads the full windowinstrument statusday-by-day row count2026-08-20 → issue date
✓ verified22.0% of devices resolve to an identified personidentity graphdeterministic cookie→identity6,228 devices
✓ verified464 distinct people; 1,136 uploadable email hashesidentity graphHEM extractionresolved set
✓ verifiedTag delivery moved from direct GTM tags to the audiencepassport loader on 2026-07-18; daily row volume and humanness held within prior varianceinstrument changeGTM-verified migration + 48h variance window2026-07-18 → 07-20
✓ verifiedPaid-social traffic quality: 23% of Meta-ad devices resolve to real peoplebeacon + UTMsource-segmented resolution4,932 ad devices
✓ verifiedThird cumulative intent read (twenty archived windows on the site through 2026-09-24, fifteen on the subscriber list): 1,460 site topics and 1,354 list topics clear the n=5 floor and 318 / 240 over-index — but at this size, off-trade topics (PlayStation 4, Tesla Model X) score as high as trade topics, so the intent panel still stays out rather than shipping noise. Watch items on the list: Permitting at 2.0x average lift (10 members, 7 windows), Equipment Rental at 3.6x (6 members)intent archivemember-level union across windows, per-week lift vs same-week baseline20 + 15 windows
✓ verifiedFirst-party list: 663 of 2,525 signups resolve to verified people (26.3%)identity graphSHA-256 HEM match, aggregate output only2,525 signups
✓ verifiedList composition is owner-heavy and propertied: top title Owner, 90% homeownersid-graph attributesperson-graph join on the matched set284 / 453 people
✓ verifiedOwner-operator wealth signature: modest income bands, net worth filled at both ends, 92% homeowners on-siteid-graph attributesconsumer-graph join308 / 320 / 317 people
~ modeledAudience decomposes into 7 buyer archetypes; weights are estimatesSimPanelsynthetic panel; seed disclosed in the persona panelmodeled
✓ verified69% of measured traffic assesses as humanFouAnalyticson-page fingerprinting, dashboard read 2026-09-266,197 pageviews

✓ verified read directly from the instrument, quotable as-is. ~ modeled estimated from distributions, flagged wherever it appears, never quotable as exact. ∅ not measured the instrument is absent or has not read yet; the row stays so the gap is on the record. Every number traces to a source, a method, and a basis count; the schema is vendor-neutral, so additional measurement layers append as new ledger rows.

METHODOLOGY & LIMITS
Tier-2 identity resolution covers US traffic only; non-US devices remain in the unresolved denominator. All composition data is delivered as aggregate statistics; no personally identifiable information leaves the measurement layer. Attribute fill varies by audience class and is disclosed per panel. Panels with low fill are labeled, never extrapolated. The subscriber list is matched as hashed emails; raw addresses never enter the matching path. As collection accumulates, this passport re-issues with the same document number and a new issue date.
NOT IN THIS PASSPORT (v0.4): business-registry verification (tier 3, designated lane for this audience class) · credit score, home value, education, residence tenure (present in consented-lane datasets such as LiveIntent; absent from this graph) · intent-topic read (third cumulative read 2026-09-26: hundreds of topics now over-index, but off-trade topics score as high as trade topics at this size — permitting and equipment rental are the trade-relevant watch items; the panel ships when a trade signal clears the floor with members to spare and stands apart from the noise, stated rather than stretched). Each appears as a new panel or ledger row in a future issue; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Issued by audiencepassport.com · 2026-09-26 · format v0.4 draft

Methodology · For buyers · Audience audit · Privacy · Terms · alex@audiencepassport.com